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4

Perfect Hope

2yo Filly · 9-8 · OR 63

Newcastle · H. Malone & Sons 100th Anniversary Nursery · 7f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

51%

Place Prob

36%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved model since sent handicapping over this trip, finding only one too good for the third time in a row in 12-runner event at Wolverhampton 2 weeks ago. Blinkers replace cheekpieces here and she's very much one to consider.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength74%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 4.8)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Windsor 08/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 6f12y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS8/0644 @ Newbury 02/07/2026 · Pos 9th of 13 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS2/0743 @ Ascot 24/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 6f GF 128 · HIGHER CLASS24/0736 @ Kempton 19/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 13 · OR 59 · 7f Sta 129 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 59 par19/086OR 596 @ Leicester 08/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 61 · 7f GS 131 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 61 par8/096OR 616 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 61 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 61 par18/096OR 61projClass-projected finish: 4th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton62nd2nd0
2026-09-08Leicester62nd2nd0
2026-08-19Kempton62nd2nd0
2026-07-24Ascot38th4th+3
2026-07-02Newbury49th7th+2
2026-06-08Windsor46th4th+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today8/062/0724/0719/088/0918/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength89%

Delivery trend -4.9% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
08/06/20266th25/10%44%+0.44
02/07/20269th200/10%33%+0.33
24/07/20268th200/10%0%0.00
19/08/20262nd15/261%92%+0.31
08/09/20262nd17/255%89%+0.34
18/09/20262nd5/287%91%+0.04