IvyArcIvyArc
2

Lazy In Red

3yo Filly · 9-2

Newcastle · Aalberts Integrated Piping Systems Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 5y

#5

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#5

★ Timeform

Commentary

Well held in pair of 11f Carlisle novice/maiden contests in recent months and she looks one for low-grade handicaps further down the line.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▼1
Strength45%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.5)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C3.0
Today: 4
Class gap: +1.0
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack3 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 1m3f39y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/0833 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 12 · OR - · 1m3f39y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS9/093projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle310th9th+1
2026-08-19Carlisle33rd2nd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-4 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength36%

Delivery trend +18.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/08/20263rd28/10%0%0.00
09/09/202610th400/10%18%+0.18