IvyArcIvyArc
3

Maneuver

3yo Filly · 9-2

Newcastle · Aalberts Integrated Piping Systems Fillies' Novice Stakes (GBB Race) · 1m 5y

#2

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

16%

Place Prob

24%

Rank

#2

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Sea The Stars filly who proved more clued up than on debut and briefly looked in control before fading into third in an Ascot maiden (1m) when last seen 12 months ago. Appeals as the type to do better as a 3-y-o and of interest on return for her top stable.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength0%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 2.5)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.5
Today: 4
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Kempton 13/08/2025 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR - · 7f Sta 12813/0854 @ Ascot 05/09/2025 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR - · 7f213y Sft 1285/094projClass-projected finish: 1st of 3
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2025-09-05Ascot43rd3rd0
2025-08-13Kempton52nd3rd−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today13/085/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 2-2 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength70%

Delivery trend -4.4% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
13/08/20252nd4/696%88%-0.09
05/09/20253rd5/493%80%-0.13