IvyArcIvyArc
3

Espresso Breeze

2yo Colt · 9-7

Newcastle · Insulation Contractors Maiden Stakes (GBB Race) · 6f

#11

Rank

Odds

25/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#11

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Caturra colt who was held back by inexperience but showed a bit by the end when seventh of 13 in a maiden at Beverley (5f) 16 days ago, plenty to do 1f out but keeping on final 100 yds. Likely improver with the step up to 6f fully expected to suit.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲1
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting.

Class-adjusted form 8.2 /10 (raw 7.0)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.0
Today: 4
Class gap: -1.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 5f Goo 13316/095
Actual finishDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley57th8th−1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish11th of 129% of fieldRange 5-10 · 50%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength25%

Delivery trend +0.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 11th of 12. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/09/20267th28/10%50%+0.50