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12

Aurora's Doublesix

4yo Filly · 8-4 · OR 45

Newcastle · Armah Switchgear Handicap · 7f 14y

#13

Rank

Odds

66/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#13

★ Timeform

Commentary

Long-standing maiden who raced too freely when tailed off in handicap at this course (1m) a week ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength61%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.0 /10 (raw 8.3)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.3
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.7
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Catterick 30/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 44 · 5f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark30/05/2026 · OR 44 par30/054OR 446 @ Thirsk 05/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 45 · 5f Gd 121 · beat its mark05/06/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Wetherby 15/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 45 · 5f110y Goo 126 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 45 par15/066OR 454 @ Ripon 03/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 6 · OR 42 · 6f Goo 132 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark03/08/2026 · OR 42 par6 @ Beverley 13/08/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m100y Goo 129 · beat its mark13/08/2026 · OR 45 par13/086OR 454 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 8 · OR 41 · 7f6y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 41 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 45 par3/096OR 456 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 46 · 5f212y Goo 122 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Newcastle 25/09/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 45 · 1m5y Std 121 · beat its mark25/09/2026 · OR 45 par25/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 13th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-25Newcastle611th11th0
2026-09-08Catterick68th8th0
2026-09-03Newcastle68th8th0
2026-08-26Catterick45th3rd+2
2026-08-13Beverley610th10th0
2026-08-03Ripon45th3rd+2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/053/083/0925/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish13th of 130% of fieldRange 9-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength10%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 13th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/05/20266th200/10%0%0.00
05/06/20269th150/10%27%+0.27
15/06/20269th200/10%0%0.00
03/08/20265th250/10%20%+0.20
13/08/202610th250/10%0%0.00
26/08/20265th300/10%43%+0.43
03/09/20268th125/10%0%0.00
08/09/20268th125/10%13%+0.13
25/09/202611th250/10%0%0.00