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11

Cable Beach

5yo Gelding · 8-5 · OR 46

Newcastle · Armah Switchgear Handicap · 7f 14y

#5

Rank

Odds

13/2

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#5

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has been shaping up well this year, bumping into a well-treated type when second of 10 at Southwell 5 weeks ago. Is back down to his last winning mark and could be ready to double his tally.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.0 /10 (raw 5.6)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 17/10/2025 · Pos 8th of 14 · OR 45 · 7f14y Std 126 · beat its mark17/10/2025 · OR 45 par17/106OR 456 @ Newcastle 07/11/2025 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 45 · 7f14y Std 121 · beat its mark07/11/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Southwell 26/11/2025 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 45 · 7f14y Std 121 · beat its mark26/11/2025 · OR 45 par26/116OR 456 @ Southwell 18/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 48 · 7f14y Std 149 · beat its mark18/12/2025 · OR 48 par6 @ Newcastle 29/12/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 48 · 7f14y Std 124 · beat its mark29/12/2025 · OR 48 par29/126OR 486 @ Southwell 20/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 48 · 1m13y Std 128 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Newcastle 02/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR 48 · 1m5y Std 128 · beat its mark02/06/2026 · OR 48 par2/066OR 486 @ Newcastle 25/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 47 · 1m5y Sta 130 · beat its mark25/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 46 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 46 par27/086OR 46projClass-projected finish: 4th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-27Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-06-25Newcastle64th4th0
2026-06-02Newcastle67th7th0
2026-01-20Southwell63rd3rd0
2025-12-29Newcastle64th4th0
2025-12-18Southwell64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/1018/122/0627/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1367% of fieldRange 4-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength50%

Delivery trend -7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/10/20258th50/10%46%+0.46
07/11/20254th28/10%70%+0.70
26/11/20251st7/163%100%+0.37
18/12/20254th4/179%75%-0.04
29/12/20254th6/168%63%-0.06
20/01/20263rd8/158%82%+0.24
02/06/20267th17/255%50%-0.05
25/06/20264th11/271%75%+0.04
27/08/20262nd3/184%89%+0.05