IvyArcIvyArc
4

Finn Ironside

5yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 64

Newcastle · Armah Switchgear Handicap · 7f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/4

Win Prob

64%

Place Prob

52%

Rank

#1

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Goes well at this track, getting off the mark for the year in 9-runner handicap over C&D 27 days ago. Can make his presence felt again.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 1 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 05/02/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 66 · 1m13y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark05/02/2026 · OR 66 par5/025OR 666 @ Newcastle 12/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 11 · OR 64 · 7f14y Std 134 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Doncaster 24/04/2026 · Pos 3rd of 16 · OR 63 · 7f6y Goo 133 · beat its mark24/04/2026 · OR 63 par24/046OR 636 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 63 · 7f6y GF 134 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Musselburgh 22/06/2026 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 63 · 7f15y Gd 141 · below its mark22/06/2026 · OR 63 par22/066OR 636 @ Kempton 08/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 62 · 1m Sta 132 · beat its mark08/07/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Southwell 23/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 62 · 7f14y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark23/07/2026 · OR 62 par23/075OR 626 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 62 · 7f14y Sta 139 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 62 par5 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 61 · 7f14y Std 126 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 61 par5/095OR 61projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle51st0th+1
2026-07-31Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-07-23Southwell55th4th+1
2026-07-08Kempton64th4th0
2026-06-22Musselburgh67th7th0
2026-06-06Doncaster68th8th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today5/026/0623/075/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 13100% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +1.3% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
05/02/202610th33/10%10%+0.10
12/03/20264th14/126%70%+0.44
24/04/20263rd7/163%87%+0.24
06/06/20268th9/276%30%-0.46
22/06/20267th11/271%25%-0.46
08/07/20264th14/126%67%+0.40
23/07/20265th10/147%67%+0.19
31/07/20262nd10/382%88%+0.05
05/09/20261st15/261%100%+0.39