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7

Palmarian

4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 58

Newcastle · Armah Switchgear Handicap · 7f 14y

#9

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Quirky type who gained breakthrough success at Leicester (1m) in July. Form has been mixed since, though arrives on the back of one of his better efforts having finished third of 12 at Southwell 15 days ago. Task is now to build on latest run back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength63%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Newcastle 19/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR 65 · 7f14y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark19/05/2026 · OR 65 par19/055OR 656 @ Doncaster 06/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 63 · 7f6y GF 134 · below its mark06/06/2026 · OR 63 par6 @ Redcar 19/06/2026 · Pos 5th of 14 · OR 60 · 7f Gd 130 · beat its mark19/06/2026 · OR 60 par19/066OR 606 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 58 · 1m53y GF 140 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 58 par6 @ Doncaster 18/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 60 · 7f213y GF 135 · beat its mark18/07/2026 · OR 60 par18/076OR 606 @ Doncaster 23/07/2026 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 60 · 7f213y GF 130 · below its mark23/07/2026 · OR 60 par5 @ Thirsk 14/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 15 · OR 61 · 7f218y Goo 121 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/08/2026 · OR 61 par14/085OR 616 @ Hamilton 02/09/2026 · Pos 10th of 10 · OR 60 · 1m68y Sft 138 · below its mark02/09/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Southwell 17/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 59 · 1m13y Std 131 · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 59 par17/096OR 59projClass-projected finish: 7th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Southwell63rd3rd0
2026-09-02Hamilton610th10th0
2026-08-14Thirsk54th3rd+1
2026-07-23Doncaster68th8th0
2026-07-18Doncaster62nd2nd0
2026-07-04Leicester61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/054/0714/0817/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-13 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength62%

Delivery trend -1.7% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/05/20268th20/10%22%+0.22
06/06/20269th22/10%20%+0.20
19/06/20265th22/10%69%+0.69
04/07/20261st13/266%100%+0.34
18/07/20262nd11/142%90%+0.48
23/07/20268th11/486%0%-0.86
14/08/20264th20/10%79%+0.79
02/09/202610th9/153%0%-0.53
17/09/20263rd18/15%82%+0.77