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13

Sadiiki

5yo Mare · 8-4 · OR 45

Newcastle · Armah Switchgear Handicap · 7f 14y

#12

Rank

Odds

50/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#12

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Still looking for a first success and never threatened after a further 4 months off when down the field in handicap at this course (6f) 29 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength23%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.5 /10 (raw 7.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 17/09/2024 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR - · 5f217y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS17/0956 @ Newcastle 27/02/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 40 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark27/02/2025 · OR 40 par6 @ Newcastle 20/03/2025 · Pos 4th of 7 · OR 44 · 6f Sta 135 · beat its mark20/03/2025 · OR 44 par20/036OR 446 @ Newcastle 01/08/2025 · Pos 4th of 9 · OR 44 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark01/08/2025 · OR 44 par6 @ Newcastle 14/10/2025 · Pos 7th of 9 · OR 45 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark14/10/2025 · OR 45 par14/106OR 456 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR 45 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 16/12/2025 · Pos 14th of 14 · OR 45 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 45 par16/126OR 456 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 45 · 5f217y Goo 126 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 7th of 8 · OR 45 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 45 par3/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 12th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-03Newcastle67th7th0
2026-05-07Redcar612th12th0
2025-12-16Newcastle614th14th0
2025-12-09Newcastle67th7th0
2025-10-14Newcastle67th7th0
2025-08-01Newcastle64th4th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today17/091/0816/123/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish12th of 138% of fieldRange 7-13 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength12%

Delivery trend -2.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 13. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
17/09/20248th150/10%0%0.00
27/02/20254th100/10%63%+0.63
20/03/20254th11/142%50%+0.08
01/08/20254th50/10%63%+0.63
14/10/20257th33/10%25%+0.25
09/12/20257th66/10%54%+0.54
16/12/202514th100/10%0%0.00
07/05/202612th100/10%0%0.00
03/09/20267th66/10%14%+0.14