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2

Spartan Fighter

9yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 64

Newcastle · Armah Switchgear Handicap · 7f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

35%

Place Prob

39%

Rank

#2

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Has rolled back the years since turning 9, winning 4 times here (all at 6f) in January/February. After a couple of lesser efforts, was sent off at 80/1 but bounced back to winning ways over C&D 27 days ago, though had the run of the race.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength73%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 5.4)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 16/12/2025 · Pos 2nd of 14 · OR 46 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark16/12/2025 · OR 46 par16/126OR 466 @ Newcastle 01/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 12 · OR 46 · 6f Std 126 · beat its mark01/01/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Newcastle 10/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 7 · OR 50 · 6f Std 130 · beat its mark10/01/2026 · OR 50 par10/016OR 506 @ Newcastle 20/01/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 54 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark20/01/2026 · OR 54 par6 @ Newcastle 04/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 59 · 6f Std 134 · beat its mark04/02/2026 · OR 59 par4/026OR 595 @ Newcastle 10/02/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 59 · 6f Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Newcastle 14/02/2026 · Pos 9th of 10 · OR 61 · 6f Sta 137 · below its mark14/02/2026 · OR 61 par14/026OR 615 @ Newcastle 06/03/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 63 · 7f14y Std 123 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark06/03/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 62 · 7f14y Std 127 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 62 par5/095OR 62projClass-projected finish: 5th of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle51st0th+1
2026-03-06Newcastle57th6th+1
2026-02-14Newcastle69th9th0
2026-02-10Newcastle51st0th+1
2026-02-04Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-01-20Newcastle61st1st0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today16/1220/0114/025/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 1392% of fieldRange 1-8 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength100%

Delivery trend +0.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
16/12/20252nd11/142%92%+0.50
01/01/20261st85/4089%100%+0.11
10/01/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
20/01/20261st5/287%100%+0.13
04/02/20262nd7/163%86%+0.23
10/02/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
14/02/20269th6/168%11%-0.57
06/03/20267th25/10%0%0.00
05/09/20261st80/10%100%+1.00