Surprised
4yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 64
Newcastle · Armah Switchgear Handicap · 7f 14y
#8
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 6 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.9 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thirsk | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2026-07-05 | Southwell | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-06-08 | Carlisle | 5 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-18 | Carlisle | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
| 2026-05-11 | Catterick | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-04-23 | Beverley | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 9th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/05/2025 | 2nd | 5/4 | 93% | 89% | -0.05 |
| 15/06/2025 | 8th | 7/1 | 63% | 0% | -0.63 |
| 15/07/2025 | 5th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 23/04/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 66/1 | 0% | 29% | +0.29 |
| 18/05/2026 | 3rd | 25/1 | 0% | 82% | +0.82 |
| 08/06/2026 | 8th | 15/2 | 61% | 0% | -0.61 |
| 05/07/2026 | 7th | 20/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 14/09/2026 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |