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10

Victory Sound

4yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 51

Newcastle · Armah Switchgear Handicap · 7f 14y

#3

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Placed 3 times this summer, before taking advantage of his much-reduced mark in handicap over this C&D on penultimate start. Wasn't disgraced back up to this grade when fifth of 13 at Kempton 9 days ago.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength62%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 5 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.1 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Doncaster 29/03/2026 · Pos 15th of 16 · OR 65 · 7f6y GS 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/03/2026 · OR 65 par29/034OR 655 @ Lingfield 14/04/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 60 · 7f1y Std 125 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark14/04/2026 · OR 60 par6 @ Lingfield 27/04/2026 · Pos 7th of 10 · OR 55 · 7f1y Std 125 · beat its mark27/04/2026 · OR 55 par27/046OR 556 @ Lingfield 01/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 52 · 1m1y Std 122 · beat its mark01/06/2026 · OR 52 par5 @ Ffos Las 29/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR 51 · 7f80y Goo 124 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark29/06/2026 · OR 51 par29/065OR 516 @ Wolverhampton 14/07/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 51 · 7f36y Std 127 · beat its mark14/07/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Lingfield 18/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 50 · 7f1y Std 135 · beat its mark18/08/2026 · OR 50 par18/086OR 506 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 49 · 7f14y Std 132 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Kempton 23/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 51 · 7f Sta 126 · beat its mark23/09/2026 · OR 51 par23/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 13
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-23Kempton65th5th0
2026-09-03Newcastle61st1st0
2026-08-18Lingfield62nd2nd0
2026-07-14Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-06-29Ffos Las53rd2nd+1
2026-06-01Lingfield63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/031/0618/0823/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1375% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength65%

Delivery trend -0.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 13.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/03/202615th80/10%7%+0.07
14/04/202610th40/10%10%+0.10
27/04/20267th25/10%33%+0.33
01/06/20263rd22/10%80%+0.80
29/06/20263rd9/276%67%-0.10
14/07/20266th8/158%38%-0.20
18/08/20262nd4/179%91%+0.12
03/09/20261st2/189%100%+0.11
23/09/20265th14/126%67%+0.40