Why Because
4yo Filly · 9-1 · OR 56
Newcastle · Armah Switchgear Handicap · 7f 14y
#11
Rank
Odds
11/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#11
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.2 /10 (raw 5.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-14 | Thirsk | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Newcastle | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-03 | Doncaster | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2026-05-21 | Catterick | 4 | 4th | 2nd | +2 |
| 2026-04-30 | Redcar | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -1.9% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 13.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06/08/2025 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 05/09/2025 | 4th | 80/1 | 0% | 67% | +0.67 |
| 01/11/2025 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 33% | -0.04 |
| 30/04/2026 | 6th | 18/1 | 5% | 0% | -0.05 |
| 21/05/2026 | 4th | 40/1 | 0% | 40% | +0.40 |
| 03/07/2026 | 7th | 40/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 14/1 | 26% | 56% | +0.29 |
| 19/08/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 56% | -0.10 |
| 14/09/2026 | 4th | 20/1 | 0% | 70% | +0.70 |