IvyArcIvyArc
8

Claytons Kolatonic

3yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 50

Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y

#9

Rank

Odds

33/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#9

★★ Timeform

Commentary

Took a step back in the right direction when 3½ lengths sixth of 12 in handicap at Wolverhampton (8.5f) in August but hasn't built on that in 2 starts since, last of 12 at Bath (1¼m) 19 days ago. Blinkers applied back down in trip.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.1 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack4 @ Chelmsford City 12/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 10 · OR - · 7f Std 133 · HIGHER CLASS12/0243 @ Wolverhampton 07/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 3 · OR - · 1m142y Std 122 · HIGHER CLASS4 @ Kempton 01/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR - · 1m Sta 123 · HIGHER CLASS1/0445 @ Haydock 22/05/2026 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 63 · 7f212y Goo 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark22/05/2026 · OR 63 par5 @ Windsor 15/06/2026 · Pos 9th of 9 · OR 62 · 1m31y Goo 127 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 62 par15/065OR 626 @ Ffos Las 12/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 6 · OR 59 · 1m3f209y Gd 129 · below its mark12/08/2026 · OR 59 par6 @ Wolverhampton 26/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 12 · OR 55 · 1m142y Std 126 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 55 par26/086OR 556 @ Wolverhampton 07/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 12 · OR 52 · 1m142y Std 132 · beat its mark07/09/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Bath 13/09/2026 · Pos 12th of 12 · OR 52 · 1m2f37y Gd 131 · below its mark13/09/2026 · OR 52 par13/096OR 52projClass-projected finish: 12th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-13Bath612th12th0
2026-09-07Wolverhampton65th5th0
2026-08-26Wolverhampton66th6th0
2026-08-12Ffos Las66th6th0
2026-06-15Windsor59th8th+1
2026-05-22Haydock57th6th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/0222/0526/0813/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish10th of 1431% of fieldRange 10-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -5.2% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 10th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/02/20266th80/10%44%+0.44
07/03/20263rd33/10%0%0.00
01/04/20264th200/10%75%+0.75
22/05/20267th20/10%40%+0.40
15/06/20269th50/10%0%0.00
12/08/20266th28/10%0%0.00
26/08/20266th40/10%55%+0.55
07/09/20265th15/261%64%+0.03
13/09/202612th16/116%0%-0.16