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12

Diamond Aura

3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 45

Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y

#10

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#10

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Having first run since leaving Hugo Palmer, made the frame at Redcar (1¼m) in July and returned to a similar level when fourth of 10 at Beverley (8.5f) 16 days ago. More needed if she's to gain a first victory.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.7)

Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 20/12/2025 · Pos 8th of 8 · OR 55 · 7f14y Std 135 · below its mark20/12/2025 · OR 55 par20/126OR 556 @ Chepstow 29/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 52 · 1m14y Goo 129 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 52 par6 @ Brighton 22/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 48 · 1m1f207y Goo 120 · beat its mark22/06/2026 · OR 48 par22/066OR 486 @ Leicester 04/07/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 46 · 1m2f GF 116 · beat its mark04/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Redcar 19/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 46 · 1m2f1y Goo 121 · beat its mark19/07/2026 · OR 46 par19/076OR 466 @ Ripon 27/07/2026 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 46 · 1m1f170y Goo 121 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 46 par6 @ Redcar 08/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 45 · 7f219y Goo 126 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 45 par8/086OR 456 @ Newcastle 02/09/2026 · Pos 9th of 12 · OR 45 · 1m2f42y Std 126 · beat its mark02/09/2026 · OR 45 par6 @ Beverley 16/09/2026 · Pos 4th of 10 · OR 45 · 1m100y Goo 123 · beat its mark16/09/2026 · OR 45 par16/096OR 45projClass-projected finish: 10th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-16Beverley64th4th0
2026-09-02Newcastle69th9th0
2026-08-08Redcar66th6th0
2026-07-27Ripon67th7th0
2026-07-19Redcar64th4th0
2026-07-04Leicester62nd2nd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today20/124/078/0816/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish9th of 1438% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▬
Strength70%

Delivery trend -0.4% per run

What the projection says

Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 9th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
20/12/20258th25/10%0%0.00
29/05/20265th50/10%33%+0.33
22/06/20264th14/126%40%+0.14
04/07/20262nd28/10%89%+0.89
19/07/20264th15/261%57%-0.03
27/07/20267th6/168%0%-0.68
08/08/20266th11/142%29%-0.14
02/09/20269th28/10%27%+0.27
16/09/20264th16/116%67%+0.51