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10

Dream Forever

3yo Gelding · 9-2 · OR 47

Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y

#6

Rank

Odds

12/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#6

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

After 3 months off, responded well to blinkers when opening account in 6f handicap at Carlisle in August. Runner-up here next time, but wasn't in quite the same form when eighth of 11 at Carlisle 23 days ago. Back up in trip (made the frame over C&D in March).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength26%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 7.8 /10 (raw 6.9)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 26/09/2025 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR 54 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark26/09/2025 · OR 54 par26/096OR 546 @ Newcastle 10/02/2026 · Pos 2nd of 12 · OR 51 · 6f Std 131 · beat its mark10/02/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Newcastle 05/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR 52 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark05/03/2026 · OR 52 par5/036OR 526 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 13th of 14 · OR 51 · 6f GS 126 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Redcar 07/05/2026 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR 50 · 5f217y Goo 130 · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 50 par7/056OR 506 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 11th of 11 · OR 48 · 7f6y Goo 128 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Carlisle 19/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 46 · 5f182y Sft 116 · beat its mark19/08/2026 · OR 46 par19/086OR 466 @ Newcastle 03/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 7 · OR 48 · 6f Std 128 · beat its mark03/09/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Carlisle 09/09/2026 · Pos 8th of 11 · OR 48 · 5f182y Goo 121 · beat its mark09/09/2026 · OR 48 par9/096OR 48projClass-projected finish: 6th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-09Carlisle68th8th0
2026-09-03Newcastle62nd2nd0
2026-08-19Carlisle61st1st0
2026-05-21Catterick611th11th0
2026-05-07Redcar612th12th0
2026-04-07Pontefract613th13th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today26/097/0419/089/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1454% of fieldRange 1-14 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength56%

Delivery trend +1.7% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 7th of 14.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
26/09/20258th7/163%13%-0.51
10/02/20262nd18/15%91%+0.86
05/03/20264th10/147%73%+0.25
07/04/202613th11/142%8%-0.34
07/05/202612th11/142%15%-0.27
21/05/202611th33/10%0%0.00
19/08/20261st33/10%100%+1.00
03/09/20262nd7/163%83%+0.20
09/09/20268th9/153%30%-0.23