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Elias Escape

3yo Colt · 9-9 · OR 54

Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y

#4

Rank

Odds

10/1

Win Prob

2%

Place Prob

9%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Little impact in his qualifying runs, but after 3 months off, he found some progress sent handicapping when third of 8 at Wolverhampton 2 weeks ago. Entitled to build on that first run back from a break.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▼1
Strength60%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.5 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.3
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Redcar 30/04/2026 · Pos 5th of 5 · OR - · 7f GF 133 · HIGHER CLASS30/0454 @ Doncaster 16/05/2026 · Pos 8th of 10 · OR - · 6f2y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS16/0544 @ Beverley 16/06/2026 · Pos 8th of 9 · OR - · 7f96y Goo 133 · HIGHER CLASS16/0646 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 55 · 7f36y Std 134 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 55 par18/096OR 55projClass-projected finish: 5th of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-18Wolverhampton63rd3rd0
2026-06-16Beverley48th6th+2
2026-05-16Doncaster48th6th+2
2026-04-30Redcar55th4th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today30/0416/0516/0618/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 14100% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength88%

Delivery trend +9.4% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 14. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
30/04/20265th33/10%0%0.00
16/05/20268th150/10%22%+0.22
16/06/20268th150/10%13%+0.13
18/09/20263rd12/137%71%+0.35