Ice Show
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 54
Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
3%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 4 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.4 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-08 | Redcar | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-06-28 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
| 2026-06-05 | Thirsk | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-05-27 | Hamilton | 4 | 5th | 3rd | +2 |
| 2026-04-20 | Newcastle | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2026 | 5th | 16/1 | 16% | 64% | +0.48 |
| 27/05/2026 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/06/2026 | 6th | 33/1 | 0% | 38% | +0.38 |
| 28/06/2026 | 10th | 22/1 | 0% | 10% | +0.10 |
| 08/08/2026 | 3rd | 28/1 | 0% | 71% | +0.71 |