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7

Lanarra

3yo Filly · 9-6 · OR 51

Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y

#1

Rank

Odds

11/2

Win Prob

84%

Place Prob

57%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Won 6f nursery here a year ago and returned to her best when doubling her tally in classified event at Catterick (7f) in August. Creditable third of 12 in handicap at Catterick 24 days ago and can give another good account.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength33%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.2 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Musselburgh 14/09/2025 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 49 · 1m2y Goo 124 · beat its mark14/09/2025 · OR 49 par14/096OR 496 @ Newcastle 04/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 46 · 6f Std 116 · beat its mark04/10/2025 · OR 46 par6 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 5 · OR 48 · 5f212y Goo 123 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 48 par21/056OR 486 @ Carlisle 08/06/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 49 · 5f182y Sft 129 · beat its mark08/06/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Ayr 20/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 6 · OR 49 · 7f50y GF 122 · beat its mark20/07/2026 · OR 49 par20/076OR 496 @ Ayr 27/07/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 49 · 6f Goo 120 · beat its mark27/07/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Ayr 08/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 49 · 6f Goo 120 · beat its mark08/08/2026 · OR 49 par8/086OR 496 @ Catterick 26/08/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 48 · 7f6y Goo 130 · beat its mark26/08/2026 · OR 48 par6 @ Catterick 08/09/2026 · Pos 3rd of 12 · OR 51 · 7f6y Goo 126 · beat its mark08/09/2026 · OR 51 par8/096OR 51projClass-projected finish: 1st of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-08Catterick63rd3rd0
2026-08-26Catterick61st1st0
2026-08-08Ayr65th5th0
2026-07-27Ayr63rd3rd0
2026-07-20Ayr64th4th0
2026-06-08Carlisle63rd3rd0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today14/098/068/088/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 1485% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength60%

Delivery trend -7.8% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
14/09/20256th28/10%29%+0.29
04/10/20251st66/10%100%+1.00
21/05/20262nd33/10%75%+0.75
08/06/20263rd7/491%75%-0.16
20/07/20264th14/126%40%+0.14
27/07/20263rd12/137%75%+0.38
08/08/20265th11/271%67%-0.04
26/08/20261st7/282%100%+0.18
08/09/20263rd10/382%82%-0.01