Nefyn Queen
3yo Filly · 9-0 · OR 45
Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y
#13
Rank
Odds
50/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#13
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 11.0 /10 (raw 12.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-04-18 | Newbury | 4 | 24th | 22th | +2 |
| 2026-03-02 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-02-18 | Kempton | 4 | 10th | 8th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -2.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 12th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18/02/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 02/03/2026 | 6th | 100/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/04/2026 | 24th | 300/1 | 0% | 4% | +0.04 |
| 02/09/2026 | 11th | 50/1 | 0% | 9% | +0.09 |