1
Soul Warrior
3yo Gelding · 9-13 · OR 52
Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y
#3
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
2%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#3
★★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-23 | Redcar | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Redcar | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-07 | Thirsk | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-07-20 | Ayr | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-07-06 | Ripon | 6 | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1477% of fieldRange 1-12 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength82%
Delivery trend -1.5% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 4th of 14.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 24/09/2025 | 1st | 40/1 | 0% | 100% | +1.00 |
| 21/03/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 0% | -0.71 |
| 14/06/2026 | 10th | 14/1 | 26% | 31% | +0.04 |
| 06/07/2026 | 3rd | 6/1 | 68% | 75% | +0.07 |
| 20/07/2026 | 5th | 22/1 | 0% | 20% | +0.20 |
| 07/08/2026 | 8th | 13/2 | 66% | 22% | -0.44 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 17/2 | 55% | 36% | -0.19 |
| 09/09/2026 | 7th | 10/1 | 47% | 60% | +0.13 |
| 23/09/2026 | 1st | 15/2 | 61% | 100% | +0.39 |