Tago Mago
3yo Filly · 9-7 · OR 52
Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y
#12
Rank
Odds
33/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#12
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.2 /10 (raw 7.2)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-07 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-08-19 | Carlisle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-03 | Ripon | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-07-07 | Wolverhampton | 4 | 7th | 5th | +2 |
| 2026-06-15 | Wetherby | 4 | 8th | 6th | +2 |
| 2025-09-29 | Southwell | 5 | 3rd | 2nd | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -8.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 14th of 14. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 29/09/2025 | 3rd | 16/1 | 16% | 71% | +0.56 |
| 15/06/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |
| 07/07/2026 | 7th | 150/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 03/08/2026 | 6th | 50/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 19/08/2026 | 9th | 50/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 07/09/2026 | 10th | 50/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |