4
Territorial Star
3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 54
Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y
#8
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#8
★★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength35%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-19 | Newcastle | 6 | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-09-08 | Catterick | 6 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-26 | Redcar | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Wolverhampton | 6 | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-04-20 | Newcastle | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2025-10-17 | Haydock | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1462% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ RUNS TO FORMmatches its price
Trend▲
Strength86%
Delivery trend +2.7% per run
What the projection says
Runs about to its market price — no systematic over- or under-performance. Projected 6th of 14. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/08/2025 | 2nd | 11/2 | 71% | 92% | +0.21 |
| 13/08/2025 | 2nd | 4/5 | 96% | 86% | -0.10 |
| 24/09/2025 | 3rd | 9/1 | 53% | 85% | +0.32 |
| 17/10/2025 | 9th | 11/2 | 71% | 20% | -0.51 |
| 20/04/2026 | 6th | 5/1 | 74% | 50% | -0.24 |
| 08/05/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 26/05/2026 | 10th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 08/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 45% | +0.45 |
| 19/09/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 67% | +0.61 |