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9

Trucial Pearl

3yo Filly · 9-2 · OR 47

Newcastle · Smith Brothers / H. Malone Handicap · 7f 14y

#2

Rank

Odds

7/1

Win Prob

13%

Place Prob

22%

Rank

#2

★★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Improved form when getting off the mark in handicap at Ripon (1m) in June and backed that up with 2 in-frame efforts. Slowly away when mid-field in classified event back at Ripon (1¼m) last time, so no surprise to see her bounce back (placed only previous visit here).

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength37%

What the class read says

Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 4.7)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Chelmsford City 12/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 11 · OR 47 · 7f Std 127 · beat its mark12/03/2026 · OR 47 par12/036OR 476 @ Newcastle 19/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR 47 · 7f14y Std 127 · beat its mark19/03/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Pontefract 07/04/2026 · Pos 6th of 14 · OR 48 · 6f GS 123 · beat its mark07/04/2026 · OR 48 par7/046OR 486 @ Doncaster 02/05/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 47 · 7f6y Goo 119 · beat its mark02/05/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Catterick 21/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 11 · OR 47 · 7f6y Goo 127 · beat its mark21/05/2026 · OR 47 par21/056OR 476 @ Ripon 18/06/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 47 · 1m Goo 127 · beat its mark18/06/2026 · OR 47 par6 @ Thirsk 16/07/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 49 · 7f218y Goo 127 · beat its mark16/07/2026 · OR 49 par16/076OR 496 @ Musselburgh 25/08/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 49 · 1m208y Gd 119 · beat its mark25/08/2026 · OR 49 par6 @ Ripon 31/08/2026 · Pos 5th of 10 · OR 49 · 1m1f170y Sft 128 · beat its mark31/08/2026 · OR 49 par31/086OR 49projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 14
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-08-31Ripon65th5th0
2026-08-25Musselburgh64th4th0
2026-07-16Thirsk64th4th0
2026-06-18Ripon61st1st0
2026-05-21Catterick63rd3rd0
2026-05-02Doncaster65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today12/032/0516/0731/08
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1469% of fieldRange 5-13 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength37%

Delivery trend -4.6% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 14. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
12/03/20262nd12/137%90%+0.53
19/03/20263rd11/893%78%-0.15
07/04/20266th11/271%62%-0.10
02/05/20265th4/179%50%-0.29
21/05/20263rd9/276%80%+0.04
18/06/20261st10/382%100%+0.18
16/07/20264th13/891%75%-0.16
25/08/20264th13/266%57%-0.09
31/08/20265th3/184%56%-0.29