Izzari
5yo Gelding · 9-6 · OR 62
Newcastle · H. Malone Mechanical & Electrical Handicap · 1m 5y
#4
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#4
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 5.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-26 | Southwell | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-11 | Carlisle | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-25 | Newcastle | 4 | 9th | 7th | +2 |
| 2026-07-04 | Carlisle | 5 | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-06-12 | York | 4 | 12th | 10th | +2 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -0.3% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27/03/2026 | 4th | 18/1 | 5% | 73% | +0.67 |
| 03/05/2026 | 8th | 10/3 | 82% | 0% | -0.82 |
| 17/05/2026 | 10th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 12/06/2026 | 12th | 66/1 | 0% | 35% | +0.35 |
| 04/07/2026 | 6th | 14/1 | 26% | 29% | +0.02 |
| 25/07/2026 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 27% | +0.11 |
| 11/08/2026 | 2nd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 31/08/2026 | 8th | 11/2 | 71% | 46% | -0.25 |
| 26/09/2026 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |