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Jamaican Storm

4yo Gelding · 9-9 · OR 65

Newcastle · H. Malone Mechanical & Electrical Handicap · 1m 5y

#1

Rank

Odds

7/2

Win Prob

94%

Place Prob

72%

Rank

#1

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Regular slow starter but has won twice here this year, the latest over 7f in July. Only narrowly denied at this course last time and can give another good account back up in trip, for all that he needs things to drop right.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength68%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.6 /10 (raw 5.2)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C5.5
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Southwell 04/03/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR 61 · 1m13y Std 132 · beat its mark04/03/2026 · OR 61 par4/036OR 616 @ Southwell 13/03/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 61 · 1m13y Std 131 · beat its mark13/03/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Newcastle 27/03/2026 · Pos 1st of 9 · OR 62 · 1m5y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark27/03/2026 · OR 62 par27/035OR 625 @ Thirsk 10/04/2026 · Pos 4th of 13 · OR 65 · 7f218y Gd 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark10/04/2026 · OR 65 par5 @ Southwell 07/05/2026 · Pos 9th of 11 · OR 65 · 1m13y Std 130 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark07/05/2026 · OR 65 par7/055OR 656 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR 64 · 6f195y Goo 134 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 64 par6 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 6th of 8 · OR 62 · 6f195y Goo 132 · below its mark15/06/2026 · OR 62 par15/066OR 626 @ Newcastle 31/07/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 61 · 7f14y Sta 139 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 61 par5 @ Newcastle 05/09/2026 · Pos 2nd of 8 · OR 64 · 7f14y Std 129 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark05/09/2026 · OR 64 par5/095OR 64projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-05Newcastle52nd1st+1
2026-07-31Newcastle61st1st0
2026-06-15Carlisle66th6th0
2026-05-29Carlisle63rd3rd0
2026-05-07Southwell59th8th+1
2026-04-10Thirsk54th3rd+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0310/0415/065/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 680% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▬
Strength76%

Delivery trend -1.3% per run

What the projection says

Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 2nd of 6.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/03/20263rd6/168%75%+0.07
13/03/20262nd9/276%88%+0.11
27/03/20261st4/179%100%+0.21
10/04/20264th15/261%75%+0.14
07/05/20269th9/153%20%-0.33
29/05/20263rd4/179%71%-0.08
15/06/20266th11/271%29%-0.42
31/07/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
05/09/20262nd11/271%86%+0.15