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3

King Sharja

6yo Gelding · 9-7 · OR 58

Newcastle · H. Malone Mechanical & Electrical Handicap · 1m 5y

#3

Rank

Odds

9/4

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#3

★★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Is thriving at present, completing a hat-trick in September with success at Southwell 8 days ago. Always looked to be doing enough last time and he's not taken lightly under a penalty.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength57%

What the class read says

Favourable class profile — form adjusted for the quality of opposition looks competitive here. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 2.7 /10 (raw 5.5)

Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C6.0
Today: 6
Class gap: 0.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Carlisle 29/05/2026 · Pos 2nd of 9 · OR 55 · 6f195y Goo 125 · beat its mark29/05/2026 · OR 55 par29/056OR 556 @ Carlisle 15/06/2026 · Pos 4th of 8 · OR 57 · 6f195y Goo 127 · beat its mark15/06/2026 · OR 57 par6 @ Beverley 03/07/2026 · Pos 10th of 11 · OR 56 · 7f96y Goo 126 · below its mark03/07/2026 · OR 56 par3/076OR 566 @ Musselburgh 31/07/2026 · Pos 5th of 7 · OR 55 · 7f15y Gd 135 · beat its mark31/07/2026 · OR 55 par6 @ Beverley 12/08/2026 · Pos 6th of 13 · OR 53 · 7f75y Goo 134 · beat its mark12/08/2026 · OR 53 par12/086OR 536 @ Southwell 27/08/2026 · Pos 2nd of 10 · OR 51 · 7f14y Std 131 · beat its mark27/08/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Musselburgh 12/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 8 · OR 51 · 1m2y Goo 131 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 51 par12/096OR 516 @ Wolverhampton 18/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 10 · OR 51 · 7f36y Std 132 · beat its mark18/09/2026 · OR 51 par6 @ Southwell 24/09/2026 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 56 · 1m14y Std 138 · beat its mark24/09/2026 · OR 56 par24/096OR 56projClass-projected finish: 1st of 6
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-24Southwell61st1st0
2026-09-18Wolverhampton61st1st0
2026-09-12Musselburgh61st1st0
2026-08-27Southwell62nd2nd0
2026-08-12Beverley66th6th0
2026-07-31Musselburgh65th5th0

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today29/0531/0712/0924/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 6100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +2.1% per run

What the projection says

Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 1st of 6. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
29/05/20262nd11/142%88%+0.45
15/06/20264th7/282%57%-0.24
03/07/202610th14/126%10%-0.16
31/07/20265th17/255%33%-0.22
12/08/20266th10/382%58%-0.24
27/08/20262nd6/168%89%+0.20
12/09/20261st9/276%100%+0.24
18/09/20261st13/891%100%+0.09
24/09/20261st4/179%100%+0.21