5
Relevant Range
7yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 61
Newcastle · H. Malone Mechanical & Electrical Handicap · 1m 5y
#6
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#6
★★ Timeform
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCOMPETITIVE
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▬
Strength45%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Highest class: 5
Recent avg: C5.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-05 | Newcastle | 6 | 9th | 9th | 0 |
| 2026-08-31 | Southwell | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-30 | Nottingham | 5 | 4th | 3rd | +1 |
| 2026-07-18 | Doncaster | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-08 | Kempton | 6 | 6th | 6th | 0 |
| 2026-06-22 | Musselburgh | 6 | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 60% of fieldRange 4-6 · 68%
▼ SLIPPINGslightly under its price
Trend▼
Strength11%
Delivery trend -3.9% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 6th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28/03/2026 | 10th | 11/1 | 42% | 31% | -0.11 |
| 25/04/2026 | 8th | 33/1 | 0% | 36% | +0.36 |
| 11/05/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 50% | +0.08 |
| 22/06/2026 | 2nd | 13/2 | 66% | 83% | +0.18 |
| 08/07/2026 | 6th | 11/1 | 42% | 44% | +0.02 |
| 18/07/2026 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 30/07/2026 | 4th | 9/1 | 53% | 25% | -0.28 |
| 31/08/2026 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 23% | +0.07 |
| 05/09/2026 | 9th | 12/1 | 37% | 0% | -0.37 |