Bellagio Man
8yo Gelding · 9-10 · OR 62
Newcastle · Pipes vs Wires Centenary Showdown Handicap · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
14/1
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
7%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 4 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 6.0)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | Wolverhampton | 5 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-05-01 | Newcastle | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
| 2025-11-21 | Southwell | 6 | 12th | 12th | 0 |
| 2025-10-21 | Newcastle | 5 | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-10-09 | Newcastle | 6 | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2025-08-29 | Newcastle | 5 | 10th | 9th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend -3.2% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01/05/2025 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 67% | +0.51 |
| 29/05/2025 | 7th | 22/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 08/08/2025 | 10th | 28/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 29/08/2025 | 10th | 66/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 09/10/2025 | 1st | 9/2 | 76% | 100% | +0.24 |
| 21/10/2025 | 1st | 7/1 | 63% | 100% | +0.37 |
| 21/11/2025 | 12th | 10/1 | 47% | 8% | -0.39 |
| 01/05/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 26/08/2026 | 5th | 40/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |