Cape Sovereign
4yo Gelding · 9-3 · OR 55
Newcastle · Pipes vs Wires Centenary Showdown Handicap · 6f
#9
Rank
Odds
25/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#9
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 9.3 /10 (raw 6.3)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-30 | Catterick | 6 | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-09-09 | Carlisle | 6 | 10th | 10th | 0 |
| 2025-10-16 | Southwell | 6 | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2025-10-02 | Newcastle | 6 | 13th | 13th | 0 |
| 2025-08-30 | Beverley | 5 | 9th | 8th | +1 |
| 2025-07-10 | Doncaster | 5 | 7th | 6th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.3% per run
What the projection says
Slipping just behind its market price recently. Projected 10th of 10. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16/05/2025 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 86% | +0.25 |
| 13/06/2025 | 10th | 8/1 | 58% | 36% | -0.22 |
| 26/06/2025 | 5th | 9/4 | 88% | 60% | -0.28 |
| 10/07/2025 | 7th | 9/2 | 76% | 25% | -0.51 |
| 30/08/2025 | 9th | 16/1 | 16% | 20% | +0.04 |
| 02/10/2025 | 13th | 10/1 | 47% | 0% | -0.47 |
| 16/10/2025 | 11th | 16/1 | 16% | 0% | -0.16 |
| 09/09/2026 | 10th | 33/1 | 0% | 18% | +0.18 |
| 30/09/2026 | 8th | 22/1 | 0% | 22% | +0.22 |