IvyArcIvyArc
10

Coulsty Exchange

4yo Filly · 8-12 · OR 50

Newcastle · Pipes vs Wires Centenary Showdown Handicap · 6f

#8

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

0%

Rank

#8

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Coulsty filly who showed a good deal more than first time up when third in a Dundalk maiden (1m) in January. Failed to repeat that over same C&D the following month but switch to handicaps in her favour now debuting for new yard so one to note in betting for clues on return.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Class-adjusted form 7.7 /10 (raw 5.3)

Highest class:
Recent avg: C8.0
Today: 6
Class gap: -2.0
Higher-class runs: 0

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC8 @ Dundalk 23/01/2026 · Pos 7th of 14 · OR - · 7f Std 13023/01C8C8 @ Dundalk 30/01/2026 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m Std 13030/01C8C8 @ Dundalk 11/02/2026 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR - · 1m Std 13011/02C8projClass-projected finish: 9th of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-02-11Dundalk?6th8th−2
2026-01-30Dundalk?3rd5th−2
2026-01-23Dundalk?7th9th−2

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today23/0130/0111/02
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 1056% of fieldRange 1-9 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength53%

Delivery trend -21.3% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
23/01/20267th28/10%54%+0.54
30/01/20263rd9/276%78%+0.01
11/02/20266th14/126%38%+0.11