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Dance Fantasy

3yo Filly · 9-9 · OR 62

Newcastle · Pipes vs Wires Centenary Showdown Handicap · 6f

#7

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

0%

Place Prob

1%

Rank

#7

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Mehmas filly who didn't show a great deal on handicap debut at Kempton (7f) but probably needed the run after 6 months off (also tongue tied) when fifth of 9 in handicap at Lingfield (7f) 3 weeks ago. Good yard now reach for a visor on first crack at 6f and not one to write off.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▼1
Strength60%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price.

Held its own mid-division in 3 of 4 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.0 /10 (raw 6.4)

Highest class: 4
Recent avg: C4.8
Today: 6
Class gap: +1.2
Higher-class runs: 4
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack5 @ Southwell 19/12/2025 · Pos 12th of 14 · OR - · 7f14y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS19/1254 @ Kempton 28/01/2026 · Pos 8th of 13 · OR - · 7f 124 · HIGHER CLASS28/0144 @ Wolverhampton 13/02/2026 · Pos 3rd of 7 · OR - · 7f36y Std 128 · HIGHER CLASS13/0245 @ Kempton 02/03/2026 · Pos 4th of 4 · OR 66 · 7f Sta 128 · HIGHER CLASS · below its mark02/03/2026 · OR 66 par2/035OR 666 @ Lingfield 12/09/2026 · Pos 5th of 9 · OR 64 · 7f1y Std 134 · beat its mark12/09/2026 · OR 64 par12/096OR 64projClass-projected finish: 3rd of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-12Lingfield65th5th0
2026-03-02Kempton54th3rd+1
2026-02-13Wolverhampton43rd1st+2
2026-01-28Kempton48th6th+2
2025-12-19Southwell512th11th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today19/1228/0113/022/0312/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 1067% of fieldRange 1-10 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength52%

Delivery trend -2.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
19/12/202512th10/147%15%-0.32
28/01/20268th16/116%42%+0.26
13/02/20263rd20/10%67%+0.67
02/03/20264th11/142%0%-0.42
12/09/20265th15/261%50%-0.11