IvyArcIvyArc
7

Pockley

8yo Gelding · 9-5 · OR 57

Newcastle · Pipes vs Wires Centenary Showdown Handicap · 6f

#4

Rank

Odds

16/1

Win Prob

1%

Place Prob

6%

Rank

#4

★★★ Timeform

Commentary

Three-time C&D winner who landed a gamble with ease in a change of headgear over 5f here last October. Probably best not judged too harshly on last month's return from 9 months off at Ayr and return to all-weather can see him to much better effect. Does need things to drop right, however.

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▬
Strength42%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 2 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 8.3 /10 (raw 6.2)

Highest class: 3
Recent avg: C5.7
Today: 6
Class gap: +0.3
Higher-class runs: 2

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBack6 @ Newcastle 27/06/2025 · Pos 5th of 13 · OR 55 · 6f Std 132 · beat its mark27/06/2025 · OR 55 par27/066OR 556 @ Ayr 09/08/2025 · Pos 7th of 7 · OR 53 · 5f Gd 128 · below its mark09/08/2025 · OR 53 par6 @ Musselburgh 13/09/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 52 · 5f1y Goo 134 · beat its mark13/09/2025 · OR 52 par13/096OR 525 @ Ayr 18/09/2025 · Pos 13th of 18 · OR 52 · 5f Goo 120 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark18/09/2025 · OR 52 par6 @ Newcastle 21/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 13 · OR 50 · 5f Std 130 · beat its mark21/10/2025 · OR 50 par21/106OR 506 @ Newcastle 20/11/2025 · Pos 6th of 9 · OR 60 · 6f Std 135 · beat its mark20/11/2025 · OR 60 par6 @ Newcastle 27/11/2025 · Pos 7th of 11 · OR 60 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark27/11/2025 · OR 60 par27/116OR 606 @ Newcastle 09/12/2025 · Pos 5th of 11 · OR 59 · 5f Std 135 · beat its mark09/12/2025 · OR 59 par5 @ Ayr 17/09/2026 · Pos 20th of 20 · OR 51 · 5f Goo 119 · HIGHER CLASS · beat its mark17/09/2026 · OR 51 par17/095OR 51projClass-projected finish: 7th of 10
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-09-17Ayr520th19th+1
2025-12-09Newcastle65th5th0
2025-11-27Newcastle67th7th0
2025-11-20Newcastle66th6th0
2025-10-21Newcastle61st1st0
2025-09-18Ayr513th12th+1

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today27/0618/0927/1117/09
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 1033% of fieldRange 7-10 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%

Delivery trend -2.9% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 10. Recent form is easing off.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
27/06/20255th7/163%67%+0.04
09/08/20257th14/126%0%-0.26
13/09/20257th25/10%40%+0.40
18/09/202513th66/10%29%+0.29
21/10/20251st18/581%100%+0.19
20/11/20256th3/184%38%-0.47
27/11/20257th6/168%40%-0.28
09/12/20255th6/168%60%-0.08
17/09/202620th100/10%0%0.00