5
Almoshahar
3yo Colt · 9-2
Saint-Cloud · Qatar Arabian Trophy Des Poulains Stakes - Arab Group 1 · 1m 1f 207y
#2
Rank
Odds
3/1
Win Prob
81%
Place Prob
61%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.
Class-adjusted form 3.7 /10 (raw 1.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.5
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-26 | La Teste De Buch | ? | 1st | 1st | −0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Dax | ? | 1st | 6th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 3-3 · 68%
▲ OVER-DELIVERINGconfirms a short-priced top pick
Trend▼
Strength70%
Delivery trend -17.5% per run
What the projection says
Beating its price historically confirms the short-priced top pick — model and market read it the same way. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/07/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 26/08/2026 | 1st | 4/6 | 96% | 100% | +0.04 |