2
Charly
3yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 93
Saint-Cloud · Prix Matchem Listed Stakes · 6f 211y
#7
Rank
Odds
9/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
0%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readSTEP-UP TEST
▲ AHEAD OF MARKedges past its mark
Move▲2
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type. Its finishes have been edging past what its mark implies.
Class-adjusted form 7.3 /10 (raw 4.9)
Highest class: 2
Recent avg: C3.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -2.4
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-25 | Deauville | ? | 8th | 8th | 0 |
| 2026-08-06 | Deauville | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-06-18 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 24th | 25th | −1 |
| 2026-05-05 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-03-30 | Chantilly | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-03-12 | Chantilly | ? | 1st | 5th | −4 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish7th of 70% of fieldRange 4-7 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength15%
Delivery trend -8.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 7th of 7. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 30/09/2025 | 4th | 12/1 | 37% | 67% | +0.30 |
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |
| 06/11/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 12/03/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 30/03/2026 | 3rd | 10/3 | 82% | 86% | +0.03 |
| 05/05/2026 | 1st | 15/8 | 90% | 100% | +0.10 |
| 18/06/2026 | 24th | 40/1 | 0% | 21% | +0.21 |
| 06/08/2026 | 1st | 7/4 | 91% | 100% | +0.09 |
| 25/08/2026 | 8th | 2/1 | 89% | 0% | -0.89 |