4
Imperior
3yo Colt · 8-13
Saint-Cloud · Prix Matchem Listed Stakes · 6f 211y
#2
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
52%
Place Prob
48%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength23%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 3 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.6 /10 (raw 5.5)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C0.7
Today: 1
Class gap: +0.1
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-09 | Deauville | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
| 2026-07-12 | Deauville | 1 | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-06-07 | ParisLongchamp | ? | 5th | 5th | +0 |
| 2026-05-10 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 11th | 10th | +1 |
| 2026-03-29 | Saint-Cloud | 2 | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-11-09 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish2nd of 783% of fieldRange 1-5 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▬
Strength68%
Delivery trend +0.3% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 2nd of 7.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 12/09/2025 | 1st | 17/2 | 55% | 100% | +0.45 |
| 14/10/2025 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 71% | -0.14 |
| 09/11/2025 | 4th | 8/1 | 58% | 70% | +0.12 |
| 29/03/2026 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 10/05/2026 | 11th | 150/1 | 0% | 17% | +0.17 |
| 07/06/2026 | 5th | 100/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |
| 12/07/2026 | 8th | 200/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 09/08/2026 | 11th | 40/1 | 0% | 23% | +0.23 |