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4

Light The Ghost

4yo Filly · 8-11

Saint-Cloud · Prix Dahlia Listed Stakes · 1m 1f 207y

#1

Rank

Odds

8/1

Win Prob

79%

Place Prob

55%

Rank

#1

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read
Move▬
Strength21%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.

Finished in the top 3 in 2 of 3 stronger races — strong class form.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.4 /10 (raw 3.1)

Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C1.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -0.5
Higher-class runs: 3
Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

FrontBackC5 @ Saint-Cloud 04/04/2025 · Pos 4th of 12 · OR - · 1m2f96y GS 1284/04C5C5 @ Chantilly 28/04/2025 · Pos 7th of 13 · OR - · 1m1f207y Sft 128C5 @ Compiegne 21/06/2025 · Pos 1st of 14 · OR - · 1m208y GS 12821/06C5C5 @ Clairefontaine 26/07/2025 · Pos 3rd of 8 · OR - · 1m208y GS 122C0 @ Saint-Cloud 02/09/2025 · Pos 1st of 16 · OR - · 1m1f207y Hvy 1272/09C?C1 @ Compiegne 10/10/2025 · Pos 3rd of 10 · OR - · 1m1f207y Ver 123C1 @ Saint-Cloud 26/10/2025 · Pos 1st of 11 · OR - · 1m2f96y Ver 121 · HIGHER CLASS26/10C11 @ Saint-Cloud 01/05/2026 · Pos 3rd of 9 · OR - · 1m1f207y GS 123 · HIGHER CLASS1 @ ParisLongchamp 24/05/2026 · Pos 6th of 7 · OR - · 1m2f96y Sft 125 · HIGHER CLASS24/051projClass-projected finish: 2nd of 10
Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
DateCourseClsPosAdjGap
2026-05-24ParisLongchamp16th6th+0
2026-05-01Saint-Cloud13rd3rd+0
2025-10-26Saint-Cloud?1st1st+0
2025-10-10Compiegne?3rd3rd0
2025-09-02Saint-Cloud?1st1st0
2025-07-26Clairefontaine?3rd7th−4

Position-In-Market Trend

0255075100today4/0426/0726/1024/05
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish1st of 10100% of fieldRange 1-3 · 68%
▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%

Delivery trend +7.0% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 10. Recent form is on the up.

DatePosSPExpActΔ
04/04/20254th6/168%73%+0.04
28/04/20257th6/168%50%-0.18
21/06/20251st17/255%100%+0.45
26/07/20253rd6/168%71%+0.03
02/09/20251st12/137%100%+0.63
10/10/20253rd13/266%78%+0.12
26/10/20251st16/116%100%+0.84
01/05/20263rd25/10%75%+0.75
24/05/20266th50/10%17%+0.17