1
Zgharta
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 89
Saint-Cloud · Prix Dahlia Listed Stakes · 1m 1f 207y
#3
Rank
Odds
20/1
Win Prob
3%
Place Prob
11%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readPROGRESSIVE
▲ BEATS ITS MARKoutruns its handicap mark
Move▲2
Strength20%
What the class read says
Stepping up in class, but the evidence backs it — has run against higher-rated rivals and held its own. Crucially, it keeps finishing ahead of what its handicap mark implies — it looks ahead of the handicapper.
Class-adjusted form 8.6 /10 (raw 5.3)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C2.3
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.5
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | Salisbury | 4 | 1st | 5th | −3 |
| 2026-07-31 | Goodwood | 2 | 7th | 8th | −1 |
| 2026-07-10 | Chester | 3 | 4th | 7th | −2 |
| 2026-06-17 | Royal Ascot | 2 | 12th | 13th | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Ascot | 2 | 6th | 7th | −1 |
| 2025-10-03 | Saint-Cloud | ? | 11th | 11th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1044% of fieldRange 10-11 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength0%
Delivery trend -2.2% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 6th of 10. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/06/2025 | 7th | 15/2 | 61% | 75% | +0.14 |
| 29/07/2025 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 64% | -0.10 |
| 22/08/2025 | 4th | 15/8 | 90% | 75% | -0.15 |
| 03/10/2025 | 11th | 9/1 | 53% | 29% | -0.24 |
| 09/05/2026 | 6th | 10/3 | 82% | 38% | -0.45 |
| 17/06/2026 | 12th | 11/1 | 42% | 52% | +0.10 |
| 10/07/2026 | 4th | 15/2 | 61% | 57% | -0.03 |
| 31/07/2026 | 7th | 5/1 | 74% | 0% | -0.74 |
| 03/09/2026 | 1st | 11/4 | 86% | 100% | +0.14 |