Etincelle

3yo Filly · 8-10

Saint-Cloud · Prix Coronation Listed Stakes · 7f 209y

#10

Rank

Odds

9/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

#10

Class Advantage Projection

Class readSTEP-UP TEST

▬ NO MARKno handicap runs to read

Move▲2

Strength10%

What the class read says

Stepping up in grade without clear higher-class evidence yet. Not automatically a negative, especially for a lightly-raced or progressive type.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 0 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 5.7 /10 (raw 3.5)

Highest class: 1

Recent avg: C2.6

Today: 1

Class gap: -1.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Actual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-03	ParisLongchamp	1	5th	5th	0	5.0
2026-08-02	Deauville	1	6th	6th	+0	4.2
2026-04-30	ParisLongchamp	?	1st	5th	−4	4.6
2026-04-05	ParisLongchamp	?	2nd	6th	−4	3.6

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish8th of 1342% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +11.5% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 8th of 13. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
05/04/2026	2nd	7/1	63%	86%	+0.23
30/04/2026	1st	7/4	91%	100%	+0.09
02/08/2026	6th	12/1	37%	29%	-0.08
03/09/2026	5th	20/1	0%	67%	+0.67