3
Lady Ilze
4yo Filly · 8-13 · OR 107
Saint-Cloud · Prix Coronation Listed Stakes · 7f 209y
#7
Rank
Odds
4/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
1%
Rank
#7
Class Advantage Projection
Class readCLASS EDGE
▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark
Move▲1
Strength31%
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 6.7 /10 (raw 5.0)
Highest class: 1
Recent avg: C2.2
Today: 1
Class gap: -1.4
Higher-class runs: 2
Stronger class form contextHandicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-03 | ParisLongchamp | 1 | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-07-26 | Mont De Marsan | 1 | 2nd | 2nd | −0 |
| 2026-05-08 | Churchill Downs | ? | 4th | 10th | −5 |
| 2026-04-10 | Keeneland | ? | 5th | 10th | −4 |
| 2025-08-30 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 7th | 7th | +0 |
| 2025-07-11 | Newmarket | 1 | 5th | 4th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish6th of 1358% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▲
Strength100%
Delivery trend +4.2% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 6th of 13. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/07/2025 | 5th | 50/1 | 0% | 43% | +0.43 |
| 30/08/2025 | 7th | 7/1 | 63% | 33% | -0.30 |
| 10/04/2026 | 5th | 9/2 | 76% | 64% | -0.13 |
| 08/05/2026 | 4th | 9/4 | 88% | 63% | -0.26 |
| 26/07/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 80% | +0.12 |
| 03/09/2026 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 50% | +0.50 |