5
Comeback Girl
4yo Filly · 8-11 · OR 101
Santa Anita · Race 1 - Allowance Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
9/2
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
9%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength0%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Class-adjusted form 3.9 /10 (raw 3.7)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C5.7
Today:
Class gap: -0.2
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-04 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-08-02 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2025-09-05 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2025-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2025-05-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-04-20 | Santa Anita | ? | 7th | 8th | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish4th of 640% of fieldRange 2-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength31%
Delivery trend -13.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/2025 | 7th | 33/1 | 0% | 25% | +0.25 |
| 26/05/2025 | 1st | 10/1 | 47% | 100% | +0.53 |
| 19/07/2025 | 2nd | 7/2 | 82% | 88% | +0.06 |
| 05/09/2025 | 5th | 6/4 | 92% | 43% | -0.49 |
| 02/08/2026 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 57% | -0.22 |
| 04/09/2026 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 71% | -0.10 |