Del Mar Jerry

6yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 105

Santa Anita · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m

Rank

Odds

5/2

Win Prob

47%

Place Prob

43%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼1

Strength42%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 4 of 5 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.3

Today:

Class gap: +1.2

Higher-class runs: 5

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Los Alamitos Racecourse	?	5th	4th	+1	6.2
2026-08-21	Del Mar	?	7th	7th	0	3.0
2026-02-08	Santa Anita	?	7th	6th	+1	4.2
2026-01-19	Santa Anita	?	2nd	1st	+1	9.2
2026-01-08	Santa Anita	?	8th	6th	+2	4.4
2025-10-11	Santa Anita	?	4th	2nd	+2	8.4

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish3rd of 660% of fieldRange 3-6 · 68%

▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price

Trend▼

Strength28%

Delivery trend -5.8% per run

What the projection says

Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 6. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
20/07/2025	3rd	7/2	82%	78%	-0.04
08/08/2025	1st	11/4	86%	100%	+0.14
07/09/2025	2nd	7/2	82%	88%	+0.06
11/10/2025	4th	4/5	96%	25%	-0.71
08/01/2026	8th	11/8	93%	13%	-0.80
19/01/2026	2nd	9/4	88%	75%	-0.13
08/02/2026	7th	9/2	76%	33%	-0.43
21/08/2026	7th	15/2	61%	14%	-0.46
12/09/2026	5th	6/1	68%	33%	-0.35