Soi Ngern
4yo Gelding · 8-12 · OR 97
Santa Anita · Race 2 - Claiming · 1m
#5
Rank
Odds
10/1
Win Prob
0%
Place Prob
2%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.1 /10 (raw 3.8)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-08 | Del Mar | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-07-30 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-07-18 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 7th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 8th | 7th | +1 |
| 2026-05-02 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +8.4% per run
What the projection says
Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 6. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19/01/2026 | 5th | 5/1 | 74% | 20% | -0.54 |
| 22/02/2026 | 5th | 11/4 | 86% | 56% | -0.30 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 5/6 | 96% | 80% | -0.16 |
| 17/04/2026 | 1st | 6/5 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 02/05/2026 | 1st | 9/1 | 53% | 100% | +0.47 |
| 22/05/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 18/07/2026 | 7th | 25/1 | 0% | 0% | 0.00 |
| 30/07/2026 | 1st | 10/3 | 82% | 100% | +0.18 |
| 08/09/2026 | 8th | 25/1 | 0% | 30% | +0.30 |