Arrakis
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 102
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#1
Rank
Odds
6/5
Win Prob
71%
Place Prob
44%
Rank
#1
Class Advantage Projection
What the class read says
Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.
Finished in the top 3 in 3 of 6 stronger races — strong class form.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 2.6 /10 (raw 3.6)
Handicap Mark vs Finish
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-23 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 4th | +1 |
| 2026-07-24 | Del Mar | ? | 7th | 6th | +1 |
| 2025-11-28 | Del Mar | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2025-10-12 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
| 2025-09-07 | Del Mar | ? | 2nd | 1st | +1 |
| 2025-07-19 | Del Mar | ? | 1st | 0th | +1 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Delivery trend +2.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 1st of 8. Recent form is on the up.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11/08/2024 | 4th | 4/1 | 79% | 63% | -0.16 |
| 26/05/2025 | 3rd | 7/2 | 82% | 33% | -0.48 |
| 19/07/2025 | 1st | 11/10 | 94% | 100% | +0.06 |
| 07/09/2025 | 2nd | 15/2 | 61% | 91% | +0.30 |
| 12/10/2025 | 1st | 4/1 | 79% | 100% | +0.21 |
| 28/11/2025 | 6th | 4/1 | 79% | 17% | -0.62 |
| 24/07/2026 | 7th | 14/1 | 26% | 0% | -0.26 |
| 23/08/2026 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 64% | +0.27 |