5
Burning Rubber
4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 101
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#3
Rank
Odds
7/2
Win Prob
12%
Place Prob
18%
Rank
#3
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.4)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: +0.2
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-31 | Del Mar | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-07-31 | Del Mar | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
| 2026-05-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-04-26 | Santa Anita | ? | 4th | 4th | 0 |
| 2026-02-22 | Santa Anita | ? | 6th | 5th | +1 |
| 2026-01-24 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 1st | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 871% of fieldRange 1-6 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength65%
Delivery trend -3.4% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 3rd of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/08/2025 | 3rd | 11/2 | 71% | 60% | -0.11 |
| 11/10/2025 | 1st | 5/2 | 87% | 100% | +0.13 |
| 23/11/2025 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 89% | +0.36 |
| 24/01/2026 | 1st | 3/1 | 84% | 100% | +0.16 |
| 22/02/2026 | 6th | 12/1 | 37% | 55% | +0.18 |
| 26/04/2026 | 4th | 11/4 | 86% | 63% | -0.23 |
| 22/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 31/07/2026 | 5th | 13/2 | 66% | 0% | -0.66 |
| 31/08/2026 | 4th | 10/1 | 47% | 73% | +0.25 |