2
Gazon
5yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 107
Santa Anita · Race 3 - Starter Optional Claiming · 6f
#2
Rank
Odds
12/1
Win Prob
13%
Place Prob
19%
Rank
#2
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▲1
Strength0%
What the class read says
Stepping up in grade today, into tougher company than it has been meeting. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Dropping 1 class level from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 4.8 /10 (raw 4.2)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C7.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.8
Higher-class runs: 0
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-08-30 | Del Mar | ? | 10th | 11th | −1 |
| 2026-08-09 | Del Mar | ? | 3rd | 4th | −1 |
| 2026-06-07 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2026-05-09 | Santa Anita | ? | 2nd | 3rd | −1 |
| 2025-06-14 | Santa Anita | ? | 1st | 2nd | −1 |
| 2025-05-03 | Santa Anita | ? | 5th | 5th | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish5th of 843% of fieldRange 5-8 · 68%
▼ UNDER-DELIVERINGfinishes below its price
Trend▼
Strength3%
Delivery trend -6.0% per run
What the projection says
Has been finishing below what its price implied — the odds have flattered it. Projected 5th of 8. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 03/02/2024 | 5th | 25/1 | 0% | 33% | +0.33 |
| 05/03/2024 | 5th | 12/1 | 37% | 50% | +0.13 |
| 16/03/2025 | 1st | 8/1 | 58% | 100% | +0.42 |
| 03/05/2025 | 5th | 7/4 | 91% | 20% | -0.71 |
| 14/06/2025 | 1st | 2/1 | 89% | 100% | +0.11 |
| 09/05/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 83% | -0.04 |
| 07/06/2026 | 2nd | 8/13 | 97% | 80% | -0.17 |
| 09/08/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 75% | -0.11 |
| 30/08/2026 | 10th | 12/1 | 37% | 10% | -0.27 |