Papa Santos

3yo Gelding · 8-10 · OR 86

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

5/1

Win Prob

87%

Place Prob

58%

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼2

Strength66%

What the class read says

The stable looks to have run this horse in stronger races to keep its official rating low — today's class drop may be intentional. Worth watching at a price. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 3 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 1.8 /10 (raw 3.8)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.6

Today:

Class gap: +1.9

Higher-class runs: 3

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-08-14	Del Mar	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0
2026-07-06	Los Alamitos Racecourse	?	2nd	-1th	+3	5.0
2026-05-29	Santa Anita	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2026-04-02	Santa Anita	?	5th	2nd	+3	8.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish1st of 9100% of fieldRange 1-7 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength70%

Delivery trend -15.1% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 1st of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
02/04/2026	5th	20/1	0%	33%	+0.33
29/05/2026	3rd	25/1	0%	71%	+0.71
06/07/2026	2nd	9/1	53%	90%	+0.37
14/08/2026	5th	13/2	66%	60%	-0.06