Stern Sentence

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 65

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

30/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readAT LEVEL

▬ RUNS TO MARKfinishes near its mark

Move▼1

Strength20%

What the class read says

Dropping in class from recent starts. Whether that's a positive depends on intent — worth checking the yard's record placing horses down in grade.

Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.3 /10 (raw 4.3)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C7.7

Today:

Class gap: +0.8

Higher-class runs: 1

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-09-12	Los Alamitos Racecourse	?	3rd	3rd	0	7.0
2025-10-13	Santa Anita	?	2nd	2nd	0	8.0
2025-09-01	Del Mar	?	8th	5th	+3	5.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish5th of 950% of fieldRange 2-9 · 68%

▬ OVER-DELIVERINGfinishes above its price — informational only

Trend▼

Strength0%

Delivery trend -6.6% per run

What the projection says

Finishes ahead of its price historically, but the delivery record alone does not predict today's finish — it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 5th of 9. Recent form is easing off.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
01/09/2025	8th	100/1	0%	0%	0.00
13/10/2025	2nd	12/1	37%	88%	+0.51
12/09/2026	3rd	7/1	63%	50%	-0.13