Tiger Smiling

4yo Gelding · 8-13 · OR 82

Santa Anita · Race 4 - Maiden Claiming · 5f 110y

Rank

Odds

4/1

Win Prob

Place Prob

Rank

Class Advantage Projection

Class readCLASS EDGE

▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark

Move▼3

Strength78%

What the class read says

Has campaigned at a higher grade and now drops into weaker company. Dropping in class here looks deliberate, not a concession. A caution, though: it has NOT been beating its handicap mark — the favourable class picture isn't yet backed by mark-adjusted finishes.

Held its own mid-division in 2 of 2 stronger races — solid form context.

Dropping 3 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.

Class-adjusted form 3.0 /10 (raw 6.0)

Highest class:

Recent avg: C6.0

Today:

Class gap: +2.5

Higher-class runs: 2

Stronger class form context

Handicap Mark vs Finish

Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today

Date	Course	Cls	Pos	Adj	Gap	Adj Score
2026-07-20	Del Mar	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0
2025-08-03	Del Mar	?	6th	3rd	+3	7.0

Position-In-Market Trend

Expected Actual Regression 68% CI

Projected finish4th of 963% of fieldRange 1-1 · 68%

▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only

Trend▲

Strength100%

Delivery trend +25.6% per run

What the projection says

Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 4th of 9. Recent form is on the up.

Date	Pos	SP	Exp	Act	Δ
03/08/2025	6th	8/1	58%	50%	-0.08
20/07/2026	6th	12/1	37%	55%	+0.18