1
Sutura
3yo Filly · 8-10 · OR 91
Santa Anita · Race 5 - Maiden Special Weight · 6f
#5
Rank
Odds
8/5
Win Prob
1%
Place Prob
6%
Rank
#5
Class Advantage Projection
Class readAT LEVEL
▼ OVER-MARKEDflattered by its mark
Move▬
Strength10%
What the class read says
Class levels are broadly matched — recent runs give an even picture at this grade. Its recent finishes fall short of what its mark implies — the rating may flatter it.
Ran mid-division in 1 of 1 higher-class runs.
Dropping 2 class levels from its toughest race — well-positioned today.
Class-adjusted form 3.5 /10 (raw 3.0)
Highest class:
Recent avg: C6.3
Today:
Class gap: -0.3
Higher-class runs: 1
Handicap Mark vs Finish
Mark par — where its OR said it should finishActual finishProjected finish today — green strong → red weakDot colour = race gradeRing = higher class than today
| Date | Course | Cls | Pos | Adj | Gap |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-09 | Kentucky Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-07-05 | Ellis Park | ? | 6th | 4th | +2 |
| 2026-05-29 | Penn National | BHA92 | 4th | 8th | −3 |
| 2026-05-07 | Churchill Downs | ? | 3rd | 3rd | 0 |
| 2026-04-17 | Keeneland | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
| 2026-03-14 | Tampa Bay Downs | ? | 2nd | 2nd | 0 |
Position-In-Market Trend
Expected Actual Regression 68% CI
Projected finish3rd of 975% of fieldRange 1-4 · 68%
▬ EDGING AHEADslightly over its price — informational only
Trend▼
Strength88%
Delivery trend -2.5% per run
What the projection says
Edging ahead of its price lately — not a standalone signal; it only counts alongside a short-priced top pick. Projected 3rd of 9. Recent form is easing off.
| Date | Pos | SP | Exp | Act | Δ |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 14/02/2026 | 2nd | 9/1 | 53% | 86% | +0.33 |
| 14/03/2026 | 2nd | 9/4 | 88% | 89% | +0.01 |
| 17/04/2026 | 2nd | 5/2 | 87% | 86% | -0.01 |
| 07/05/2026 | 3rd | 11/4 | 86% | 80% | -0.06 |
| 29/05/2026 | 4th | 16/1 | 16% | 40% | +0.24 |
| 05/07/2026 | 6th | 10/1 | 47% | 17% | -0.31 |
| 09/09/2026 | 2nd | 6/1 | 68% | 91% | +0.22 |